AILF Report on Border Enforcement
For an excellent summary of the efficacy of U.S. border enforcement policy and recommendations for a new approach to U.S./Mexico migration, see Douglas S. Massey, “Beyond the Border Buildup: Towards a New Approach to Mexico-U.S. Migration” (American Immigration Law Foundation, Sept. 2005). http://www.ailf.org/ipc/infocus/2005_beyondborder.pdf
Among the findings of the report are that,
— “Between 1986 and 2002 the number of Border Patrol officers tripled . . . .”
— “The probability of apprehension along the U.S.-Mexico border fell . . . to an all-time low of 5 percent in 2002.”
— “The cost of making one arrest along the U.S.-Mexico border increased from $300 in 1992 to $1700 in 2002, an increase of 467 percent . . . .”
— “From 1980 to 1992, the cost of hiring a coyote (smuggler) averaged around $400 per crossing, but rose to $1,200 in 1999 before leveling off.”
— “the average probability of return migration among Mexican migrants to the United States declined from around 45 percent prior to 1986 to around 25 percent in 2002.”