More on Labor Force Trends

The skill levels demanded by occupations projected to grow over the next several years parallel the educational profile of the labor force, suggesting ongoing demand along the skill spectrum. Every two years, the Bureau of Labor Satistics (BLS) publishes projections about the future size and shape of the U.S. labor force, and the number of net jobs that will be created or lost in each occupation. The latest projections are for the years 2002 to 2012 and they forecast a slowing in the rate at which the total labor force is growing. However, there is substantial variation in the fortunes of various occupational workforces.

Tomorrow’s economy will generate demand for jobs that are different from today’s and the skills that workers need will likewise change. The BLS separates out 15 occupations that are projected to have the largest numerical growth and another 15 that are projected to experience the fastest rate of growth. Immigrants make up a significant share of the labor force in many large and fast-growth occupations. Imprtant, the BLS further classifies occupations by the degree of skill required for the job, showing that there will be a demand for both low and high-skilled immigrant workers.

For the forecast large-growth occupations, 11 out of the 15 require only short or moderate-term on-the-job training, suggesting lower-skilled immigrants could contribute to meeting the demand for these types of jobs. According to the 2000 Census data, immigrants were overrepresented in 4 of these occupations. Immigrants made up 20% of janitors and building cleaners, 17% of nursing, psychiatric, and home health aides, 13% of waiters and waitresses, and 13% of cashiers. On the high skill end, 3 large growth occupations–general and operations managers, other teachers and instructors, and postsecondary teachers–require a bachelor’s degree or higher and immigrants are especially well poised to contribute to these.

Immigrants are also found in jobs that are expected to be important in serving tomorrow’s aging population. Seniors are expected to increasingly generate demand for medical, home care, and other services, many of which require workers with only on-the-job training. According to analysis of BLS data, 8 of 15 occupations projected to grow most rapidly and several of the occupations projected to have largest absolute growth are medical support occupations including medical records technicians, nursing and home health aides, registered nurses, occupational therapist assistants and aides, personal and home care aides, and the like.

In summary, forecasts of occupational growth suggest that there is likely to be continued strong growth in occupations requiring better educated workers. There will also be a substantial growth of jobs requiring little training and in which immigrants are already well represented. Educational forecasts suggest that throughout the next decade, immigrants are likely to play an important role in restructuring the U.S. labor force.

Source: Migration Policy Institute
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