How Likely is Reform?

With Republicans looking to regain control of the Senate and Democrats hoping to pad their majority in 2008, neither party appears inclined to make the political sacrifices necessary to pass a broad immigration bill this year and may be content to simply duel to a rhetorical draw this summer, lawmakers and strategists in both parties said.

Leaders from both parties, Judiciary Chairman Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) and Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) have all vowed to pass reform legislation this year, and Kennedy has been meeting with the White House and presidential hopeful Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in recent weeks to work out a new compromise bill.

But despite these efforts, it still appears unlikely that comprehensive reforms will move out of the chamber before electoral concerns kill the bill.

In fact, GOP and Democratic aides contend that both parties may be best served by a political impasse over the issue, since such a scenario would allow Members to show they are standing firm on the hot-button issue while avoiding compromises that may upset base voters.

“Really, a filibuster is a win for us,” one Democratic aide said, arguing that it would fit into the broader message to voters that Republicans are blockading reforms.

Similarly, a GOP aide argued that “blocking a bill is good for us” since Republican incumbents would be able to avoid facing the ire of single-issue conservative base voters come Election Day. Click here.

bh