Anti-Immigrant Stance Would Hurt GOP

June 27, 2008

The Republican Party would suffer at the polls if it maintains an anti-immigrant stance, according to this report from America’s Voice:

What Does Rep. Cannon’s Loss in Utah Say About the Republican Party and Immigration?

America’s Voice Says GOP Embrace of Hardliners Will Cost the Party in November and Beyond

“The Republican Party is in the midst of a civil war on immigration, and anti-immigrant hardliners are ascending—a trend that doesn’t bode well for the long-term viability of the GOP. While Republican primary voters are pulling their candidates to the right on this issue, they are hurting their Party’s chances in swing districts, key battleground states, and on the national stage. Republicans like Rep. Chris Cannon and Senator John McCain are stuck between a rock and a hard place on this issue. The rock is the unyielding, unforgiving, anti-immigrant wing of the Party. The hard place is where the majority of Americans stand, which is for a practical solution that replaces an illegal system with a legal one. Sooner or later, Republicans will realize that allowing the anti-immigrant wing to take the reins of the Party is both bad politics and bad policy.” – Frank Sharry, Executive Director, America’s Voice

The loss by incumbent Rep. Chris Cannon to Jason Chaffetz in the Utah-3 Republican primary has been portrayed as a victory for anti-immigration extremists. While immigration was not the only issue in the contest, it clearly played a role in setting up the scenario for a bitter Republican primary, and the result highlights a dangerous trend for the GOP over the long-haul. The GOP base’s elevation of extremist candidates on immigration has the potential to cripple the Party’s competitiveness on the national stage. The Republican Party is in the midst of a bitter battle on immigration, and the restrictionist minority is on the rise. As a result, the GOP’s tone and positioning on the issue have become increasingly extreme and out of touch with broader national sentiment on the issue.

This intra-party divisiveness bodes ill for Senator John McCain, who is trying to have it both ways —attempting to placate GOP hardliners by distancing himself from his past support for comprehensive immigration reform, while also trying to maintain a positive relationship with Latino voters. However Latino citizens, who are becoming an increasingly important group of voters, are disappointed by the Republican shift towards extremist positions and Senator McCain’s inability to stand up to extremists in his own Party. Poll after poll shows that Latinos are rejecting the Republican Party in high numbers, and overwhelmingly supporting Senator Barack Obama over Senator McCain.

In addition, hard-line immigration policies have failed to attract independent and swing voters who will be critically important to deciding multiple Congressional races, as well as the outcome of the Presidential contest.

Following is our take on the lessons learned from Rep. Cannon’s loss in the Republican primary, and what this means for the Presidential contest and future elections.

Background on the Cannon/Chaffetz Race

While immigration was a factor in the UT-3 race, it was not the only factor. According to Chaffetz himself, “I knew early on we would lose if we focused just on immigration. My message was purposely broader than immigration. … My signature issue is fiscal discipline,” (Politico, “Chaffetz’s win a GOP ‘wake-up call,’” June 26, 2008).

Utah’s 3rd District is one of the most Republican in the nation; President Bush won 77% of the vote in 2004. Rep. Cannon, a six-term incumbent, had faced tough primary challenges in 2004 and 2006 from candidates to his right. Representative Cannon has also been dogged by several traces of scandal in recent years, including former staff’s ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, controversy over a personal loan, and questions over the influence of his lobbyist brother. Cannon made several notable verbal gaffes in recent years, including dismissing the seriousness of the allegations against Rep. Mark Foley’s conduct with Congressional pages by saying, “There’s not much we can do except educate kids to the dangers. Frankly, this is the responsibility of the parents – If you get online you may find creepy people who will do and say creepy things – avoid them… It looks like this one email was a prank–a bunch of kids sitting around, egging this guy on,” (Salt Lake Tribune, October 6, 2006).

As the third Member of Congress to lose in a primary battle in addition to dozens of retirements by vulnerable Members, the results in Utah are further evidence of a widespread, anti-incumbent mood. This was noted in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s analysis of the UT-3 race, which credited Chaffetz for running a “grass-roots campaign that centered on changing the way Washington does business — a theme that will be equally pertinent during the general election in the fall,” (NRCC, “Utah Primary Results,” June 24, 2008, http://www.nrcc.org/news/view_article.asp?id=1949).

Reverberations on the National Stage: 2008

The schism in the Republican Party over immigration—and its impact on the larger electorate—is already visible in the 2008 Presidential election.

The Pew Hispanic Center reports that in 2008, Latinos will comprise about 9% of the eligible electorate nationwide and will make up approximately 6.5% of actual voters, if past turnout percentages remain static. The Latino vote is particularly concentrated in key battleground states. As Pew reports, Latinos constitute “a sizable share of the electorate in four of the six states that President Bush carried by margins of five percentage points or fewer in 2004—New Mexico (where Latinos make up 37% of state’s eligible electorate); Florida (14%); Nevada (12%) and Colorado (12%). All four are expected to be closely contested once again in 2008,” (Pew Hispanic Center, December 2007). A recent poll from Latino Decisions/Pacific Research found that in the four southwestern “battleground” states, New Mexico, Arizona, Colorado and Nevada, Senator Obama leads Senator McCain among Latinos 57% to 31. Additionally, NBC/WSJ poll from June 11th showed Latinos favoring Senator Barack Obama 62% to 28% over Senator John McCain; a Gallup poll from May 31st found that Latinos favored Obama 62% to 29%; and a Reuters/Zogby poll from May 18th found Obama winning Latinos 57% to 29%.

In 2004, over 40% of Latinos supported George W. Bush’s reelection. Although once a champion of comprehensive immigration reform, Senator John McCain’s recent alliance with the anti-immigrant base of the Republican Party has been greeted unfavorably by Latino voters, and makes it unlikely he will reach or exceed Bush’s high-water mark with Latinos. As the Politico recently reported, Senator McCain “dismayed Latinos last year when he stepped back from his immigration bill that would have tightened the borders and legalized undocumented immigrants. As boos and hisses from angry Republican conservatives grew louder at campaign events, he switched course and vowed to “first” secure the borders. Were his failed bill to come up again, he would not vote for it, he said,” (Politico, “McCain’s Immigration Zigzag,” June 20, 2008). McCain’s poor showing among Latino voters in recent months is clear evidence that, despite his earlier support for comprehensive immigration reform, his efforts to appease the Republican base and distance himself from common-sense reform have cost him dearly with this key demographic.

In addition, recent research from Democracy Corps/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research shows that in the 45 most-competitive Republican-held districts, the Republican “amnesty” attack may excite voters’ passions but it doesn’t translate into votes, (“Democrats Improve Advantage in 45 Republican-Held Districts,” June 3, 2008, http://www.democracycorps.com/strategy/2008/06/another-congressional-wave-election/?section=Analysis).

Embrace of Anti-Immigrant Stance Will Hurt G.O.P. Long-Term

Nationwide, the Republican alliance with immigration hardliners does not bode well for GOP competitiveness in the 2008 cycle and longer term. The increasing importance of the Latino vote and these voters’ disgust with the policy and rhetoric of the anti-immigrant wing of the Republican Party will have lasting political consequences. In addition, swing voters who want solutions and not empty sound bites will reject politicians who pander in favor of politicians who are willing to roll up their sleeves and solve tough problems.