IPC Refutes CIS Claim that Drop in Undocumented Population is Due to Stepped Up Immigration Enforcement
The Center for Immigration Studies, a Washington, DC group that promotes more restrictive immigration laws and policies, recently concluded that drops in the undocumented population in the United States is attributable to stepped up immigration enforcement. Below is CIS’s announcements and major conclusion of the study. The Immigration Policy Center, a division of the American Immigration Law Foundation which promotes more humane immigration laws and policies, questions the methodology and, therefore, the conclusions of the study. That response is also provided below.
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Ilegal Immigrant Population Dropping
New Report Estimates 1.3 Million Decline Since Last Summer
WASHINGTON (July 30, 2008) — A new analysis of monthly Census Bureau data shows a significant decline in the number of less-educated Hispanic immigrants. The report is the first to show systematic evidence that the illegal population is decreasing. There is good evidence that recent immigration enforcement efforts are a key factor causing the decline.
The report, entitled “Homeward Bound: Recent Immigration Enforcement and the Decline in the Illegal Alien Population,” is available at the Center for Immigration Studies web site www.cis.org
Among the findings:
• Our best estimate is that the illegal immigrant population has declined by 11 percent through May of this year after hitting a peak in August 2007.
• The implied decline in the illegal population is 1.3 million since last summer, from 12.5 in August 2007 to 11.2 million in May 2008.
• The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least 7 times larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving the country on their own.
• One indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for the decline is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be effected; the legal immigrant population continues to grow.
• Another indication enforcement is causing the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in their unemployment rate.
• The importance of enforcement is also suggested by the fact that the current decline is already significantly larger than the decline during the last recession.
• While the decline began before unemployment rose, the evidence indicates that unemployment has increased among illegal immigrants, so the economic slowdown is likely to be at least partly responsible for the decline in the number of illegal immigrants.
• There is good evidence that the illegal population rose last summer while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost immediately.
Discussion: These findings are consistent with anecdotal evidence. They are also consistent with data showing a fall off in remittances sent home by immigrants. And they are in line with a drop in border apprehensions. While the evidence indicates that stepped-up immigration enforcement has played an important role in causing the decline, the economic downturn is also likely to be encouraging illegal immigrants to return home. The decline in the illegal population, whatever the cause, seems to directly challenge the argument that illegal aliens are so firmly attached to their lives in this country that it is not possible to induce many of them to return home. If the current trend were sustained, it could cut the illegal population in half within five years.
There is no way to know whether the current trend will continue. Future enforcement efforts as well as the state of the economy will likely determine if the number of illegal immigrants continues to drop. Both presidential candidates have recently stated their strong commitment to legalizing those in the country illegally. Pronouncements of this kind may have consequences. When Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants last summer, there is evidence that the illegal population grew. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to decline rapidly. It may be that the repeated promises of legalization by both candidates in recent weeks will encourage more illegal immigrants to enter the country or encourage those already in the country, who might otherwise leave, to stay in the hopes of being awarded legal status.
Methodology: This study uses monthly data from the Current Population Survey collected by the Census Bureau. The Department of Homeland Security, the former INS and other outside research organizations have used Census Bureau data to estimate the illegal immigrant population. We examine trends in the number of foreign-born less-educated young Hispanics. Prior research indicates that 80 percent of these individuals are in the country illegally. We estimate the range for the decline in the illegal immigrant population is 9 to 14 percent, with 11 percent as the most likely value.
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Contact: Steven Camarota
(202) 466-8185 • sac@cis.org
Immigration Policy Center (IPC)
…providing factual information about immigration and immigrants in the United States.
For Immediate Release
Attrition Through Recession:
New CIS Report Suggests Spend More, Say Nothing,
and Hope for a Recession
July 30, 2008
Washington, DC–A new report released by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) on Wednesday, July 30th, claims that stepped-up enforcement measures account for much of the recent decline in the undocumented immigrant population. The following is a statement by Angela Kelley, Director of the Immigration Policy Center, an immigration research organization in Washington.
“CIS implies that the illegal immigrant population could drop to half of what it is now within the next five years if only presidential candidates keep silent about the details of comprehensive immigration reform, taxpayers continue to pour billions of dollars into enforcement, and the U.S. economic recession persists-according to CIS, reducing illegal immigration apparently comes with a cruel price tag.
Most researchers agree that undocumented immigration to the United States is driven largely by economics. Yet, in a new report entitled Homeward Bound: Recent Immigration Enforcement and the Decline in the Illegal Alien Population, CIS dubiously claims that undocumented immigrants decide where to live and work based more on the politics of immigration enforcement than the economics of their own survival. CIS concludes that the recent decline in the “likely illegal population” (which it defines as less-educated, foreign-born Hispanics age 18 to 40) is largely the result of new immigration-enforcement efforts rather than the downturn of the U.S. economy, including job losses in the construction sector that had been absorbing many less-skilled Hispanic immigrants.
The persuasiveness of CIS’ argument is undermined not only by an absence of hard data, but by the faulty logic and contradictory statements of the report itself. The authors report confidently about a population that is nearly impossible to accurately measure. They admit they did not include data about any population other than Hispanics. They provide no evidence for their assertion that the immigration debate in Congress last summer spurred an increase in undocumented immigration.
CIS provides no real solutions to the nation’s immigration problems. They insult thoughtful Americans when they seemingly hope for continued unemployment and recession, promote harsh enforcement measures that separate families and destroy communities, and suggest that politicians should not even talk about real solutions. By requiring undocumented immigrants to come forward, legalize their status, and learn English, we would strengthen the rule of law and turn undocumented immigrants into taxpayers. The U.S. must enact a practical, fair, and reasonable solution that includes smart enforcement measures.”
For more information contact Andrea Nill, 202-507-7520 or email anill@ailf.org
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