Not Sure What this Means But . . . Border Apprehensions at a 10 Year Low!

Here is data on border apprehensions from 1999-2010 (Download Border Patrol Apprehensions):

Fiscal year                Apprehensions           # of Border Patrol Officers

1999                        1,579,010

2000                        1,676,438 HIGH               8,580

2001                        1,266,213

2002                         955,310

2003                         931,557

2004                        1,160,395

2005                        1,189,075

2006                        1,089,092

2007                          876,704

2008                          723,825   

2009                          556,041

2010                          483,382 LOW                  20,745 (2011)

Although interesting, I am not sure what this data really means.  It does show that border apprehensions last year were at a 10 year low and only about one-third of what they were in fiscal year 1999.  From 2000 to 2011, the number of Border Patrol officers more than doubled from roughly 8,500 to more than 20,700.  Although apprehensions were at a low in FY 2010, deportations in the same fiscal year were at an all time high of nearly 400,000.  (By the way, another relevant statistic that might be worth including in this table is the rising death toll of migrants in the U.S./Mexico border region).

Let me hazard a sketch of an explanation.  What likely is occurring is that programs like the much-criticized (see, e.g., here, here and here) Secure Communities are facilitating the removal of small time criminal violators who had been residing in the country and this were not “apprehended” at the border by the Border Patrol.

Ultimately, whatever the number of apprehensions and removals, it is only the recession that put much of a dent in the undocumented population, decreasing it from a high of about 12 million in 2009 to roughly 11.1 million today.  Without as strong a magnet of jobs, the number of undocumented immigrants living and working in the United States has declined, once again proving that labor migration is what fuels undocumented — as well as lawful — migration to the United States.

KJ