Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the United States: Estimates Since 1986

Last week, the Congressional Research Service released “Unauthorized Aliens Residing in the UnitedStates: Estimates Since 1986” by Ruth Ellen Wasem.  Below is the summary:

“Estimates derived from the March Supplement of the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current PopulationSurvey (CPS) indicate that the unauthorized resident alien population (commonly referred to asillegal aliens) rose from 3.2 million in 1986 to 12.4 million in 2007, before leveling off at 11.1million in 2011. The estimated number of unauthorized aliens had dropped to 1.9 million in 1988following passage of a 1986 law that legalized several million unauthorized aliens. Jeffrey Passel,a demographer with the Pew Hispanic Research Center, has been involved in making theseestimations since he worked at the U.S. Bureau of the Census in the 1980s.

Similarly, the Department of Homeland Security’s Office of Immigration Statistics (OIS) reportedan estimated 11.5 million unauthorized alien residents as of January 2011, up from 8.5 million inJanuary 2000. The OIS estimated that the unauthorized resident alien population in the UnitedStates increased by 37% over the period 2000 to 2008, before leveling off since 2009. The OISestimated that 6.8 million of the unauthorized alien residents in 2011 were from Mexico. About33% of unauthorized residents in 2011 were estimated to have entered the United States since2000, but the rate of illegal entry appears to be slowing. The OIS based its estimates on data fromthe U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey.

Although increased border security, a record number of alien removals, and high unemployment,among other factors, have depressed the levels of illegal migration in recent years, the number ofunauthorized aliens residing in the United States remains sizeable. Research suggests that variousfactors have contributed to the ebb and flow of unauthorized resident aliens, and that the increaseis often attributed to the “push-pull” of prosperity-fueled job opportunities in the United States incontrast to limited job opportunities in the sending countries. Accordingly, the economicrecession that began in December 2007 may have curbed the migration of unauthorized aliens,particularly because sectors that traditionally rely on unauthorized aliens, such as construction,services, and hospitality, have been especially hard hit.

Some researchers also suggest that the increased size of the unauthorized resident populationduring the late 1990s and early 2000s is an inadvertent consequence of border enforcement andimmigration control policies. They posit that strengthened border security curbed the fluidmovement of seasonal workers. This interpretation, generally referred to as a caging effect, arguesthat these policies raised the stakes in crossing the border illegally and created an incentive forthose who succeed in entering the United States to stay. More recently, some maintain thatstrengthened border security measures, such as “enforcement with consequences,” coordinatedefforts with Mexico to reduce illegal migrant recidivism, and increased border patrol agents, maybe part of a constellation of factors holding down the flow.

The current system of legal immigration is cited as another factor contributing to unauthorizedmigration. The statutory ceilings that limit the type and number of immigrant visas issued eachyear create long waits for visas. According to this interpretation, many foreign nationals who havefamily in the United States resort to illegal avenues in frustration over the delays. Someresearchers speculate that record number of alien removals (e.g., reaching almost 400,000annually since FY2009) may cause a chilling effect on family members weighing unauthorizedresidence. Some observers point to more elusive factors when assessing the ebb and flow ofunauthorized resident aliens—such as shifts in immigration enforcement priorities away fromillegal entry to removing suspected terrorists and criminal aliens, or well-publicized discussionsof possible “amnesty” legislation.” (emphasis added).

KJ