When the Dust Finally Settles: Migration Policy After Brexit
The political and economic fallout from the Brexit vote was felt almost instantaneously, as Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation and stock markets around the world plunged within hours of the results. The ramifications for migration policy and future immigration levels will take far longer to ascertain, however.
In a timely commentary, Migration Policy Institute UK Senior Fellow Will Somerville examines the likely near- and longer-term items on the policy agenda, including the rights of EU nationals already resident in the United Kingdom, negotiation of new border-control arrangements, and decisions over future admissions.
Several trends are plausible, Somerville writes, including spikes in migration of EU nationals seeking to reunify with family or otherwise secure their status ahead of rule changes, as well as increased irregular immigration. And while future migration levels are impossible to predict amid such policy and economic uncertainty, he estimates that the United Kingdom would continue to receive 500,000 or more immigrants annually from the European Union and beyond, with annual net migration around 200,000. That would be twice the level of the controversial net migration pledge that the Cameron-led Coalition government and Conservative successor failed to meet—fueling public anxiety about government’s ability to manage migration. In a recent MPI report, Somerville and co-author Sunder Katwala examined British public attitudes towards immigration, and the role that migration played in the call for a referendum and recent politics within and beyond the Conservative Party.
Examining the challenges ahead as the United Kingdom charts a new course, Somerville concludes in his commentary: “The new Prime Minister would be advised to underpromise and overdeliver on migration or risk further backlash.”
KJ