U.S. population will decline faster without steady immigration, Census report says

 Marissa J. Lang for the Washington Post writes that “limiting immigration over the next four decades would do little to stop the racial diversification of the United States — but it could push the country into a population decline . . . .” This is according to a new report from the U.S. Census Bureau (Current Population Reports — A Changing Nation: Population Projections Under Alternative Immigration Scenarios).   The report considers how different levels of immigration could impact the U.S. population in terms of growth, age and racial diversity and its labor force.

The intro to the Census report reads as follows:

“Higher international immigration over the next four decades would produce a faster growing, more diverse, and younger population for the United States. In contrast, an absence of migration into the country over this same period would result in a U.S. population that is smaller than the present. Different levels of immigration between now and 2060 could change the projection of the population in that year by as much as 127 million people, with estimates ranging anywhere from 320 to 447 million U.S. residents.

Beyond influencing the number of people in the population, immigration patterns over the next four decades will also shape the racial and ethnic composition of the population. In 2016, Asians were the fastest-growing racial group in the nation, and immigration was the primary driver behind the growth in this group. If immigration increases, the Asian alone population could grow by as much as 162 percent between 2016 and 2060 and go from 5.7 percent of the total U.S. population to 10.8 percent. The future size of this population is particularly sensitive to immigration. Under a scenario with no immigration, the Asian alone population in the United States would decline over time, representing just 4.5 percent of the total population in 2060.”

KJ