Does Increased Enforcement Deter Migrants?

How effective are detention and deportation at deterring migrants from Central America from coming to the United States?  The Crime Report summarizes some recent studies looking at the issue:

“[R]esearch shows that the threat of detention and deportation doesn’t dissuade migrants from making the journey to the southern border, reports Vox. A paper published earlier this month found that the threat of immigration enforcement has no significant effect on people’s decision to migrate from Mexico and Central America’s “Northern Triangle” . . . An experiment that was included in the 2018-2019 AmericasBarometer survey . . . found that about 21 percent said they were `a little likely to go,’ 10 percent said they were `somewhat likely,’ and roughly another 10 percent said `very likely’ even in the face of stricter enforcement rules.

Another study that analyzed 2014 survey data from more than 3,000 people in 12 Honduran municipalities with varying rates of homicide and crime victimization found that the survey takers’ views of the dangers of migration to the U.S. and the likelihood of deportation did not seem to influence their plans to migrate in any meaningful way. The factor that was most associated with people’s desire to migrate was whether they were victims of crimes, as is the case for many asylum seekers fleeing gang violence in Honduras. . . .”

KJ