Urban Institute Report: Simulating the 2020 Census: Miscounts and the Fairness of Outcomes

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The Trump administration attempted to add a question on U.S. citizenship to Census 2020, which provoked fears that noncitizens might not respond to the Census questionnaire.  The threat of a citizenship question may have been enough to result in an undercount of noncitizens. The Urban Institute’s report “Simulating the 2020 Census: Miscounts and the Fairness of Outcomes” found that 

1. There likely was an overall 0.5 percent net undercount of the US population. Although it was different from the 2010 count, which had nearly perfect net accuracy, it was perhaps not as severe an undercount as some feared.
2. Considerable variation exists in who was undercounted and overcounted overall in the 2020 Census. Net accuracy is important, but fairness also matters.
   • We find that the true total populations of Mississippi and Texas were undercounted in our simulated 2020 Census by 1.3 and 1.28 percent, respectively, while Minnesota’s population was net overcounted by 0.76 percent. For the next decade, such differences matter for these states. Mississippi and Texas residents will receive less of their fair share of federal funding for infrastructure, health care, and children’s programs. In contrast, Minnesota residents will receive more.
   • If the residents had been counted accurately in the 2020 Census, Texas would receive over $247 million more and Minnesota would receive $156 million less in 2021 federal Medicaid reimbursements. A fair and accurate census impacts people’s well-being, and these outcomes can be disparate across the nation.
3. Those hardest to count in recent decennial censuses were again likely undercounted in the 2020 Census. For each hardest-to-count group, equity issues arise with the count’s fairness, how resources will be distributed, and who will miss out on their fair share of political representation and funding:
   • Black and Hispanic/Latinx people had a net undercount of more than 2.45 and 2.17 percent, respectively, in our simulated 2020 Census.
   • Young children, or those younger than age 5, were likely net undercounted by 4.86 percent.
   • Nationwide, renters were likely undercounted by 2.13 percent overall.
   • Households with a noncitizen present were likely undercounted by 3.36 percent overall.

KJ