The Gambler’s Fallacy and Asylum Adjudications

My colleague Joel Dobris tipped me off to this interesting factoid:

“A 20-minute video that looks at 21 kinds of thinking errors. Here’s an example of the Gambler’s Fallacy: `A University of Chicago review found asylum judges were 19% less likely to approve an asylum seeker if they had just approved the previous two. The same person applying for a loan was more likely to get approved for a loan if the previous two applicants were rejected and was more likely to be rejected if the previous two applications were approved.’” 

KJ