The Making of a President 2024 From a California Immigration Perspective
The Making of a President 2024 From a California Immigration Perspective
With Super Tuesday in the books, the 2024 Presidential election almost definitely will be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. Polls suggest a tight cliff hanger, with immigration perhaps the top issue for many voters. California has much at stake on this pivotal issue and thus the outcome of the election.
Why California Cares About Immigration
A few important facts offer insights into why Californians should care deeply about immigration.
- Largest Immigrant Population in the United States
California has the largest immigrant population, as well as the largest undocumented population, of all the states. California is home to 10.4 million immigrants, 23% of the foreign-born U.S. population.
- Economic Impact of Immigration on the State
One of the largest economies in the world, California relies heavily on immigrant labor, especially in the agricultural, construction, and service industries. Roughly one in three California workers is an immigrant. Additional restrictions on immigration would likely tighten the labor market, drive up wages and price inflation, and adversely affect the California and national economies.
- Latina/o Population
With a population almost 40% Latina/o, California has the largest Latina/o population in the United States. It includes many Latina/o voters with strong views about immigration law and policy. Because of their ancestry and appearance, Latina/o citizens are often directly affected by immigration enforcement, or have family and community members who are.
- A Blue “Sanctuary” State
Dominated by Democrats, California is a die-hard “Blue” state with political leaders generally supportive of immigrants. The Trump administration unsuccessfully challenged in court California’s sanctuary law, which declared it to be a “sanctuary” state , and limited California’s cooperation with the U.S. immigration enforcement. California has developed a supportive social structure for immigrants, including undocumented immigrants. It, for example, allows undocumented immigrants to be eligible for in-state resident fees at public colleges and universities and provides them health care.
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What impacts on immigration will we likely see if former President Trump returns to office? If President Biden is re-elected?
A Second Trump Administration
The first Trump administration saw the adoption of a plethora of creative, tough immigration policies, including but not limited to the:
- “Zero-tolerance policy” for undocumented immigrants;
- Return to Mexico policy forcing immigrants to wait in Mexico in deplorable conditions while their asylum and other claims were being decided;
- Title 42 order, which closed the U.S./Mexico border in the name of public health during the pandemic;
- Ban on the admission of Muslim immigrants;
- Mass detention of immigrants (and the end of “catch and release”) as a tool for immigration enforcement; and
- Separating migrant families at the U.S./Mexico border.
If given a second term, President Trump has promised to start where he left off on immigration. Expect many of the policies listed above to come back in a second Trump term and to be supplemented with even tougher immigration policies. Fear in immigrant communities generated by his immigration statements and policies, as they did in his first term, may “chill” immigrants from accessing public benefits, including health care, which as the COVID pandemic taught us helps ensure everyone’s health. Distrust of government may lead many Latina/os to not report crimes and otherwise cooperate with the police.
By restricting migration, Trump’s immigration policies could well contribute to a tighter labor market in the agriculture, construction, and service industries. Changes in the job market in the post-COVID era, and relatively low fertility rates among U.S. citizens, already have resulted in a tight labor market. Tight labor markets, in turn, lead to increased wages and price inflation, which has been a major problem in the United States over the last few years. Immigration restrictions could worsen matters.
A Second Biden Administration
In the early days of the 2024 campaign, President Biden has responded with a call for Congress to pass comprehensive immigration reform and suggested that additional measures to control the flow of migrants at the U.S./Mexico border are in the works. However, during his first term, Biden walked back many of the harshest Trump immigration policies, such as the Muslim ban, Title 42 order, and Return to Mexico policy. In addition, he never talked of migrants as deserving of harsh treatment, or as “criminals” and “rapists,” as President Trump has. President Biden is more likely to continue to pursue a more moderate immigration approach, in no small part to avoid undue criticism from the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Even if embracing somewhat tougher positions than he has in his first term, it seems highly unlikely that Biden would ever go to the extremes that Trump would. Immigrants thus are less likely to fear government under President Biden than with a Trump administration. In addition, restricting labor migration and resulting inflation would seem less likely with President Biden than with President Trump.
Conclusion
California has much at stake in the 2024 presidential election when it comes to immigration. President Biden and former President Trump offer two very different approaches to immigration that would impact the Golden State in very different ways.
KJ