Immigration Article of the Day: The Postpandemic U.S. Immigration Surge: New Facts and Inflationary Implications by ANTON CHEREMUKHIN, SEWON HUR, RONALD MAU, KAREL MERTENS, ALEXANDER W. RICHTER, and XIAOQING ZHOU

The U.S. experienced an extraordinary postpandemic surge in unauthorized immigration. This paper combines administrative data on border encounters and immigration court records with household survey data to document two new facts about these immigrants: They tend to be hand-to-mouth consumers and low-skilled workers that complement the existing workforce. We build these features into a model with capital, household heterogeneity and population growth to study the inflationary effects of this episode. Contrary to the popular view, we find little effect on inflation, as the increase in supply was largely offset by an increase in demand.

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