Wide disparities in estimates of Venezuelan TPS holders–Explained!

There are wide disparities in the reported estimates of Venezuelan TPS holders. News outlets have been citing the Trump administration’s estimate that 350,000 Venezuelans have TPS and will be affected by Secretary Noem’s recent termination of the program. Meanwhile MPI estimates that there are 607,000 Venezuelans with TPS (and an additional 117,000 who entered the US on the now-terminated CHNV program).

What explains the disparity?

Well, there are TWO different Venezuelan TPS programs: a 2021 program and a 2023 program. The latter (2023) is the one that DHS Secretary Mayorkas sought to extend prior to leaving office and that now DHS Secretary Noem announced that she would end. The former (2021) is simply being allowed to end when it ends.

How does this shake out?

Some 350,000 Venezuelans who have TPS under the 2023 program will lose their status on April 2, 2025.

The remaining 250,000-ish Venezuelans who have TPS under the 2021 program will lose their status on September 10, 2025. 

-KitJ